In December 2004, Council on Foreign Relations member Robert L. Hutchings, Chairman of the National Intelligence Council of the CIA, presented the US president, members of Congress, cabinet members and key officials involved in policymaking a 123-page report titled “Mapping the Global Future”. In the preface Hutchings gives special recognition to Council on Foreign Relations member Matthew Burrows, Director of the NIC’s Analysis and Production Staff. The project took about a year and involved more than 1000 people.
The report foresees pervasive insecurity
“We foresee a more pervasive sense of insecurity—which may be as much based on psychological perceptions as physical threats—by 2020. Even as most of the world gets richer, globalization will profoundly shake up the status quo—generating enormous economic, cultural, and consequently political convulsions. With the gradual integration of China, India, and other emerging countries into the global economy, hundreds of millions of working-age adults will become available for employment in what is evolving into a more integrated world labor market. This enormous work force—a growing portion of which will be well educated—will be an attractive, competitive source of low-cost labor at the same time that technological innovation is expanding the range of globally mobile occupations. The transition will not be painless and will hit the middle classes of the developed world in particular, bringing more rapid job turnover and requiring professional retooling. Outsourcing on a large scale would strengthen the antiglobalization movement. Where these pressures lead will depend on how political leaders respond, how flexible labor markets become, and whether overall economic growth is sufficiently robust to absorb a growing number of displaced workers.”
The report foresees International Terrorism :
“The key factors that spawned international terrorism show no signs of abating over the next 15 years. Facilitated by global communications, the revival of Muslim identity will create a framework for the spread of radical Islamic ideology inside and outside the Middle East, including Southeast Asia, Central Asia and Western Europe, where religious identity has traditionally not been as strong. This revival has been accompanied by a deepening solidarity among Muslims caught up in national or regional separatist struggles, such as Palestine, Chechnya, Iraq, Kashmir, Mindanao, and southern Thailand, and has emerged in response to government repression, corruption, and ineffectiveness. Informal networks of charitable foundations, madrassas, hawalas1, and other mechanisms will continue to proliferate and be exploited by radical elements; alienation among unemployed youths will swell the ranks of those vulnerable to terrorist recruitment.
We expect that by 2020 al-Qa’ida will be superceded by similarly inspired Islamic extremist groups, and there is a substantial risk that broad Islamic movements akin to al-Qa’ida will merge with local separatist movements. Information technology, allowing for instant connectivity, communication, and learning, will enable the terrorist threat to become increasingly decentralized, evolving into an eclectic array of groups, cells, and individuals that do not need a stationary headquarters to plan and carry out operations. Training materials, targeting guidance, weapons know-how, and fund-raising will become virtual (i.e., online).”
The report lays out four possible scenarios for the future :
“Davos World provides an illustration of how robust economic growth, led by China and India, over the next 15 years could reshape the globalization process—giving it a more non-Western face and transforming the political playing field as well. Pax Americana takes a look at how US predominance may survive the radical changes to the global political landscape and serve to fashion a new and inclusive global order.
A New Caliphate provides an example of how a global movement fueled by radical religious identity politics could constitute a challenge to Western norms and values as the foundation of the global system.
Cycle of Fear provides an example of how concerns about proliferation might increase to the point that large-scale intrusive security measures are taken to prevent outbreaks of deadly attacks, possibly introducing an Orwellian world.”
On December 12, 2005 Elizabetth Bumiller published an Article in the NY Times titled 21st-Century Warnings of a Threat Rooted in the 7th. The article is about the word “Caliphate”. The article is a limited hangout mentioning six members of the Council on Foreign Relations but links only one of them to the CFR. “Just as we had the opportunity to learn what the Nazis were going to do, from Hitler’s world in ‘Mein Kampf,’ ” [Council on Foreign Relations member ] General Abizaid said, “we need to learn what these people intend to do from their own words.” Two Council on Foreign Relations members, George Shuster and William Langer edited the English version of “Mein Kampf” in 1939. Instead of warning the American The Council on Foreign Relations brought Hitler and the National Socialists to power to cause World War II. ).
The Council on Foreign Relations is now bringing Islamic Radicals to power to escalate the War on Terror and bring about World War III. The unrest in the Middle East is part of the Council on Foreign Relations plan. Sceanario three, A New Caliphate, is unfolding. The Tunisian and Egyption revolutions in the middle east are a giant step forward in the plan.
Meanwhile the Council on Foreign Relations War on Terror is advancing scenario four, the Cycle of Fear, as western nations like the USA and Britain infringe on the liberties of their citizens, strip away their privacy, dignity and freedom and by turn into police states.
The article follows. The article has been modified to identify the Council on Foreign Relations members.
Defense Secretary [Trilateral Commission member] Donald H. Rumsfeld said it in a speech last Monday in Washington and again on Thursday on PBS. Eric S. Edelman, the under secretary of defense for policy, said it the week before in a round table at the Council on Foreign Relations. Stephen J. Hadley, the national security adviser, said it in October in speeches in New York and Los Angeles. [Council on Foreign Relations member] Gen. John P. Abizaid, the top American commander in the Middle East, said it in September in hearings on Capitol Hill.
Doug Mills/The New York Times
Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld is the most recent official to warn of an Islamic empire.
Vice President[Council on Foreign Relations member ] Dick Cheney was one of the first members of the Bush administration to say it, at a campaign stop in Lake Elmo, Minn., in September 2004.
The word getting the workout from the nation’s top guns these days is “caliphate” – the term for the seventh-century Islamic empire that spanned the Middle East, spread to Southwest Asia, North Africa and Spain, then ended with the Mongol sack of Baghdad in 1258. The term can also refer to other caliphates, including the one declared by the Ottoman Turks that ended in 1924.
Specialists on Islam say the word is a mysterious and ominous one for many Americans, and that the administration knows it. “They recognize that there’s a lot of resonance when they use the term ‘caliphate,’ ” said [Council on Foreign Relations member ] Kenneth M. Pollack, a former Central Intelligence Agency analyst and now a scholar at the Saban Center at the Brookings Institution. [Council on Foreign Relations member ] Zbigniew Brzezinski, [Council on Foreign Relations member ] President Jimmy Carter’s national security adviser, said that the word had an “almost instinctive fearful impact.”
So now, [Council on Foreign Relations member ] Mr. Cheney and others warn, Al Qaeda’s ultimate goal is the re-establishment of the caliphate, with calamitous consequences for the United States. As Mr. Cheney put it in Lake Elmo, referring to Osama bin Laden and his followers: “They talk about wanting to re-establish what you could refer to as the seventh-century caliphate” to be “governed by Sharia law, the most rigid interpretation of the Koran.”
Or as Mr. Rumsfeld put it on Monday: “Iraq would serve as the base of a new Islamic caliphate to extend throughout the Middle East, and which would threaten legitimate governments in Europe, Africa and Asia.”
[Council on Foreign Relations member ] General Abizaid was dire, too. “They will try to re-establish a caliphate throughout the entire Muslim world,” he told the House Armed Services Committee in September, adding that the caliphate’s goals would include the destruction of Israel. “Just as we had the opportunity to learn what the Nazis were going to do, from Hitler’s world in ‘Mein Kampf,’ ” [Council on Foreign Relations member ] General Abizaid said, “we need to learn what these people intend to do from their own words.”
A number of scholars and former government officials take strong issue with the administration’s warning about a new caliphate, and compare it to the fear of communism spread during the Cold War. They say that although Al Qaeda’s statements do indeed describe a caliphate as a goal, the administration is exaggerating the magnitude of the threat as it seeks to gain support for its policies in Iraq.
In the view of John L. Esposito, an Islamic studies professor at Georgetown University, there is a difference between the ability of small bands of terrorists to commit attacks across the world and achieving global conquest.
“It is certainly correct to say that these people have a global design, but the administration ought to frame it realistically,” said Mr. Esposito, the founding director of the Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding at Georgetown. “Otherwise they can actually be playing into the hands of the Osama bin Ladens of the world because they raise this to a threat that is exponentially beyond anything that Osama bin Laden can deliver.”
[Council on Foreign Relations member ] Shibley Telhami, the Anwar Sadat professor for peace and development at the University of Maryland, said Al Qaeda was not leading a movement that threatened to mobilize the vast majority of Muslims. A recent poll [Council on Foreign Relations member ] Mr. [Council on Foreign Relations member ] Telhami conducted with Zogby International of 3,900 people in six countries – Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Lebanon – found that only 6 percent sympathized with Al Qaeda’s goal of seeking an Islamic state.
The notion that Al Qaeda could create a new caliphate, he said, is simply wrong. “There’s no chance in the world that they’ll succeed,” he said. “It’s a silly threat.” (On the other hand, more than 30 percent in [Council on Foreign Relations member ] Mr. Telhami’s poll said they sympathized with Al Qaeda, because the group stood up to America.)
The term “caliphate” has been used internally by policy hawks in the Pentagon since the planning stages for the war in Iraq, but the administration’s public use of the word has increased this summer and fall, around the time that American forces obtained a letter from Ayman al-Zawahiri, the No. 2 leader in Al Qaeda, to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia. The 6,000-word letter, dated early in July, called for the establishment of a militant Islamic caliphate across Iraq before Al Qaeda’s moving on to Syria, Lebanon and Egypt and then a battle against Israel.
In recent weeks, the administration’s use of “caliphate” has only intensified, as Mr. Bush has begun a campaign of speeches to try to regain support for the war. He himself has never publicly used the term, although he has repeatedly described the caliphate, as he did in a speech last week when he said that the terrorists want to try to establish “a totalitarian Islamic empire that reaches from Indonesia to Spain.”
Six days earlier, Mr. Edelman, the under secretary of defense, made it clear. “Iraq’s future will either embolden terrorists and expand their reach and ability to re-establish a caliphate, or it will deal them a crippling blow,” he said. “For us, failure in Iraq is just not an option.”
The events of the last few weeks in Tunisia and Egypt have emboldened the terrorists and expanded their reach and ability to re-establish a caliphate. Was this what the CFR had in store for the World when they backed Bin Laden during the Soviet/Afghan War ?